Miles Bennett
Golf betting is increasingly becoming a popular sport to wager on, with the PGA Tour partnering with multiple sportsbooks and the sport gaining traction on a global scale. The most common way to bet on golf is to pick the tournament winner, but there are other ways to wager and win. When betting on golf, three key factors come into play: course fit, current form, and course history. Course fit refers to how a golfer's skillset aligns with the course layout, while current form considers recent results and momentum. Course history looks at a golfer's past performance on a particular course. There are various types of bets to make, such as finishing position bets, where you wager on a golfer's final ranking within a certain range, and each-way bets, which are two bets in one, allowing you to bet on both the player to win and their finishing position.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Key factors | Course fit, current form, course history |
| Course fit | How a golfer's skill set aligns with the layout |
| Current form | Recent results, momentum, confidence |
| Course history | Comfort with the course |
| Wager types | Outright winners, top-20, first-round leader, matchup bets, finishing position bets |
| Finishing position bets | Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, Top 40 |
| Betting mindset | Weighing odds and probability |
| Betting strategy | Structuring bets to consistently cash, betting on favourites, betting on safer wagers |
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Understanding odds
Golf betting has a vast array of options due to the massive playing field, number of competitors, and thousands of events happening within a tournament. The most basic golf wager is betting on the tournament winner. This is also the most popular type of golf bet because it is straightforward. However, the odds on certain golfers can be astronomical, with long shots often as high as 500/1.
When it comes to understanding odds, it's important to know that sportsbooks want to make a profit. They sell odds to bettors, and the odds are set to make a profit and attract bettors to both sides. Oddsmakers and sportsbooks are aligned in trying to reduce the risk of the sportsbooks losing big. Sports analysts, statisticians, and mathematicians are involved in determining the odds you see, and they examine the wider betting market, statistics, and data. For future bets, they will look at previous performances at the course, form, injuries, weather forecasts, and a player's strengths and weaknesses.
American odds are centred around winning or wagering $100 on a given bet. If you're betting on a favourite, the odds typically have a minus (-) sign, indicating how much you need to wager to win $100. So, at -120 odds, you would need to stake $120 to profit $100 and get a $220 return. If you bet on an underdog, the odds usually have a plus (+) sign, indicating how much you will profit from a successful $100 wager. So, at +120 odds, if you bet $100, you will win $120 and get your initial stake back for a $220 return. These odds scale with your unit size. For example, a $1.30 wager on a -130 favourite would win $1, while a $1 bet on a +110 underdog would win $1.10.
It's important to remember that odds are not static. They are a snapshot of a given moment and particular market. Oddsmakers constantly adjust odds and prices based on bets received, player-related news, weather forecast changes, and other factors.
To get the best odds, it's recommended to use multiple sportsbooks to shop for the best line. The outright odds for a tournament winner can vary between sportsbooks. For example, a golfer might be priced at 60/1 on DraftKings Sportsbook but available at 80/1 on FanDuel Sportsbook. For a $100 bettor, that's a $2,000 difference in payout.
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Popular wager types
When it comes to betting on golf, there are several wager types that are popular among punters. Here are some of the most common and popular ones:
Outright Winner
The most popular wager in golf is often the "moneyline" bet, which is simply betting on the outright winner of a tournament. This is a classic "Who's holding the trophy?" bet. Given the large fields in golf, the odds are usually attractive, but it can be challenging to predict the winner correctly. These bets can be placed at any point before the tournament concludes.
Finishing Position Bets
These bets focus on where a golfer will place in a particular tournament, rather than predicting the outright winner. Common variations include Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, or even Top 40 finishes. These bets offer more flexibility and shorter odds compared to outright winner wagers. If there is a tie for the final position, the stake is proportionally reduced.
Each-Way Bets
An each-way bet is essentially two bets in one. You are wagering on a player to win the tournament, but also to finish within a certain position range, such as Top 3 or Top 8. If the player wins, both sides of the bet are successful. If they finish within the specified range but don't win, only the position side of the bet pays out.
First-Round Leader Bets
Instead of predicting the overall tournament winner, you can bet on a golfer to lead after the first round of 18 holes. This can be a fun and exciting alternative to the traditional outright winner bets, especially if you want to focus on a golfer's short-term performance.
When considering these wager types, it's important to keep in mind key factors such as course fit, current form, and course history, which can influence your decisions and potentially increase your chances of success.
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Key factors
When betting on golf, three key factors often come into play: course fit, current form, and course history. Course fit refers to how well a golfer's skills match the course layout. This could be a bomber's paradise, a precision-heavy track, or a putting contest. Current form considers a golfer's recent results, momentum, and confidence. Course history looks at a golfer's past performance on a specific course, including their comfort level and memories of success.
Another important consideration is the type of bet placed. Popular bets include picking the outright winner, finishing position bets (Top 5, Top 10, Top 20), and head-to-head matchups. Each bet type carries different odds and probabilities of winning. For example, a golfer at 30-1 odds has a 3.2% implied probability of winning, while a top-20 bet at +200 has a 33% implied probability.
To increase your chances of success, consider factors such as morning tee times, calm conditions, and aggressive scorers when betting on first-round leaders. Additionally, some golfers may perform better under certain weather and wind conditions, so staying updated on forecasts can be advantageous.
While betting on golf, it is essential to shop around for the best odds and use a book with no dead heat for placement or first-round leader bets. Structuring your outright card to guarantee a minimum return, such as 8x of your total wagers, can also be a prudent strategy.
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Finishing positions
Finishing position bets are wagers on where a golfer will place in a particular tournament, rather than betting on a player to win outright. These bets are popular because they are lower risk than picking someone outright to win. It is generally easier to predict where a golfer will rank at the end of a tournament than to predict the outright winner. Therefore, you are more likely to win a bet based on their finishing position.
Finishing position bets typically come in the form of:
- Top 5 Finish – The golfer must finish in the top 5.
- Top 10 Finish – The golfer must place within the top 10.
- Top 20 Finish – The golfer must finish in the top 20.
Some sportsbooks may also offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, and there are markets where the finishing position includes ties, or there is a dead-heat rule. Since these bets don’t require the golfer to win, they serve as an alternative with lower odds, albeit correlated to the outright markets.
Oddsmakers will set odds on which player will post the better finishing position, and you can pick which player you think will have the better tournament. Three-way golf odds simply add a third player to the odds mix, and you can bet on which of the three players involved will finish higher at the end of the tournament.
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Payouts
Golf betting markets offer a diverse range of options for those looking to bet on the sport. These markets encompass various types of wagers, from predicting tournament winners to more specific outcomes within a golf event.
Golf betting odds can be presented in different formats, including decimal, fractional, and American odds. These odds represent the potential payout for a successful bet and can vary between different betting sites.
American odds are centred around winning or wagering $100 on a given bet. If you're betting on a favourite, the odds will be preceded by a minus (-) sign, indicating how much you need to wager to win $100. For instance, a -120 price means you would bet $120 to win $100 (and collect a total of $220). If you're betting on an underdog, the odds will be preceded by a plus (+) sign, indicating how much you will win for every $100 risked. So, a +500 bet means you could bet $100 to win $500 (and collect a total of $600).
Many bettors from outside the US utilise decimal odds as they are easier to convert to implied probabilities than American odds. Decimal odds represent the amount a bettor wins for every $1 wagered. A -140 favourite would translate to 1.714 in decimal odds, so for every $1 you wager, you will profit 71.4 cents plus your original $1 stake. A +120 underdog would translate to 2.2 in decimal odds, meaning for every dollar you bet, you will win $1.20 and collect $2.20 in total.
Implied odds are the conversion of odds offered by betting operators into an implied win probability. They relate to the price of a wager, not the name of the player attached. For example, a -110 bet has the same implied probability (52.38%) regardless of the player. True odds are where you, as a bettor, can add your personal variables to the equation. So, if you have a -110 wager and you believe the outcome will happen 55% or 60% of the time, that may be worth a wager.
An example of an 18-hole matchup is where Justin Thomas (-150) is favoured against Jordan Spieth (+130). Using an odds calculator, you can calculate the implied probability of either side winning. In this case, Thomas has a 60% implied probability, while Spieth has 43.48%. However, if you know that Spieth loves the course and Thomas is working through some swing changes, you might determine that Spieth has a 50% chance of winning, meaning there is "value" and that side is potentially worth a wager.
Each-way betting is a popular and strategic way to bet on golf. This format allows you to place two separate bets on a golfer: one for them to win and another for them to place in a specific position, usually within the top 3, 5, or 10. If the golfer finishes but does not win (e.g., second or third place), only the stake for the podium positions is returned. This type of bet is useful when there is doubt about the winner, as there is still an expected return if the golfer performs well. In practice, bookmakers pay set fractions of the win odds for the place portion. So, if a golfer comes in 2nd or 3rd place, the bookmaker may pay 1/4 or 1/5 of the win odds. In this case, the payout for the win part is typically more profitable, while the place part is done at a lesser rate. When the golfer doesn't come in the place range, both segments of the bet are lost. Each-way betting is a good strategy for major golf tournaments with large fields, where the chances of picking a winner are slim.
Some of the biggest golf bets include multiple sports. For example, one person placed a $10 wager on a four-leg multi-bet at odds of 9,972.22 to 1 and won close to $100,000.
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Frequently asked questions
Golf betting is more than just picking a winner. The most common way to bet on golf is to pick which player will win the tournament, but there are other ways to bet, such as top-5, top-10, and top-20 bets.
When betting on golf, three key factors often come into play: course fit, current form, and course history. Course fit refers to how a golfer's skill set aligns with the layout of the course. Current form looks at recent results, momentum, and confidence. Course history considers how comfortable a golfer is with a particular course.
Golf tournament odds on platforms like DraftKings follow the American odds format by default, which indicates the amount you must wager or can win on any selection based on $100 increments. Negative (-) odds typically designate the favourite, while positive (+) odds indicate the underdog.
One strategy is to bet on golfers who are likely to lead after 18 holes, especially if they have morning tee times, calm conditions, and are aggressive scorers. Another strategy is to place conservative wagers on golfers to finish within a certain range, such as the top 20, rather than needing to win the tournament.
