Ava Romero
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) golf is a volatile sport and one of the toughest to navigate week by week. With each tournament played on a different course, there are many variables to consider when building a lineup. From course history and scoring difficulty to grass types, recent player form, long-term form, and weather, there are many factors that can influence the outcome of a golf tournament. In this guide, we will explore strategies to help you build a winning DFS golf lineup and make informed decisions when placing your wagers.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Team composition | It's better to have a solid all-round team than a stars/scrubs lineup. |
| Research | Look at course history, scoring difficulty, grass types, recent player form, long-term form, weather, unreported injuries, etc. |
| Course history | Some golfers do well at certain events or courses, which can indicate their level of confidence. |
| Course fit | Different courses favour golfers with different skill sets. Knowing what a course gives up and what its best defence is can help identify the strongest players. |
| Strokes gained data | Look at individual golfers' performance over the past half-decade to understand their strengths and weaknesses. |
| Cash games vs GPPs | Cash games are about playing the best golfers with the best chance of making the cut. GPPs are about ownership—if a golfer has a good chance of winning but is less owned, play them. |
| DFS salaries | These correlate with the betting market and are priced in relation to other players that week. |
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What You'll Learn
Consider course history
When considering course history, it's important to note that each DFS golf tournament is played on a different course, and course fit tends to be a major factor in a golfer's performance. The dimensions, distance, and number of bunkers and water hazards vary across courses, giving advantages to golfers with different skill sets. Some golfers may simply have a feel for certain courses. For example, Jordan Spieth excels at Augusta National because the extremely wide fairways mitigate his off-the-tee weakness.
To make informed decisions, you can utilise tools like the PGA Course History Dashboard, which captures a player's history at every event for the previous five years. This includes overall finishing positions and key strokes gained statistics, such as Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green, Tee to Green, and Putting. By analysing these data points, you can identify golfers who consistently perform well on specific courses or have a strong history at particular events.
Additionally, consider digging deeper into strokes gained data for each individual golfer on any course they've played on the PGA Tour in recent years. This allows you to understand the specific strengths they exhibited on a particular course, such as putting or ball-striking. By understanding the nuances of a golfer's performance, you can make more confident predictions about their likelihood of success on similar courses in the future.
While course history is valuable, it should be considered alongside other factors. For example, if an event is held at a new course each season, the course history may be less relevant. In such cases, focus on other aspects like recent form, weather conditions, and golfer skill sets to make the most informed decisions when building your DFS golf lineup.
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Understand golfer salaries
Understanding golfer salaries is key to winning at DFS golf. The salaries of golfers on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel are highly correlated with betting markets and Vegas odds to win a tournament. This means that betting favourites tend to be priced higher. For example, an average PGA TOUR golfer like Joel Dahmen can be priced above $10,000 on DraftKings if he is a betting favourite and has previously won the tournament.
However, it's important to remember that golfers are priced in relation to others in the field that week. So, in a stronger field with higher top-end talent, Dahmen might only cost a few hundred more than golfers like Emiliano Grillo and Nick Taylor, even though he is priced several thousand dollars higher in other weeks.
DFS golf players often debate the value of a player's history at a certain course or tournament, as some tournaments change courses regularly. Some players perform better at certain courses, so it can be worth examining a player's course history and using strokes gained data to compare each player's performance in relation to the field.
When it comes to distributing your salary, there are a few different approaches you can take. You can take the stars and scrubs approach, the semi-stars and semi-scrubs approach, or go for a well-balanced lineup. The stars and scrubs approach can be effective in large tournaments, but it may not be the best strategy for 50/50s and Head-to-Heads due to its high variance.
Ultimately, the goal in daily fantasy golf is to have as many golfers in your lineup as possible that are going to make the cut, so it's important to stay up to date with news, injury reports, and betting lines, as value can unexpectedly open up due to late changes.
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Know the contest type
Knowing the type of contest you are entering is crucial to success in DFS golf. There are two main types of DFS golf contests: Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) and Cash games. Each week, DraftKings posts featured guaranteed events, which during major golf events include "Millionaire Maker" contests. GPPs generally feature a small portion of the player pool finishing in the money with top-heavy prizes. Cash games, on the other hand, typically pay out half of the player players double their investment. For example, if 20 players invested $10 into a cash game contest, the top 10 would be paid out $20.
Within these two broad categories, there are several variations to be aware of. Cash games can take the form of "'double-ups' or "50/50s", while GPPs can include "multiplier" contests, which offer the potential for a bigger payoff if your cash lineup performs well. Another type of contest is the "head-to-head", where you create the head-to-head contests yourself and limit the number of times one person can play against you.
It's important to understand the differences between these contest types because they will influence the type of team you play. In cash games, you generally want to play the best golfers who have a good chance of making the cut and performing well on projection sites and course models. In GPPs, ownership becomes a key consideration. If a player has a good chance of winning and is less owned than other players, they can give you an advantage.
Additionally, the size and payout structure of the contest should be considered. Larger contests tend to have higher entry fees or "rakes", so when starting out, it's advisable to look for single-entry and 3-max contests with lower rakes and fewer opponents. Understanding the payout structure is also crucial; for example, in Double-Ups, you need to finish in the top 44% of the contest leaderboard to win.
Finally, when it comes to team composition, it's generally better to have a solid all-around team rather than a stars-and-scrubs lineup. While picking the winner of the tournament is great, if the rest of your golfers don't make the cut, you won't fare well in cash games or GPPs. Therefore, focus on building a team with a high likelihood of making the cut rather than solely on their potential to win.
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Analyse golfer form
Analysing golfer form is a key part of winning at DFS golf. There are several tools available to help you do this, such as Golf Predictor and Fantasy National Golf Club, which provide comprehensive statistics and predictions.
When analysing golfer form, it is important to look at both long-term performance and recent performance. This includes current form and previous year's results, but it's also important to dig deeper and look at the form leading into each tournament. For example, if a player had a solid track record on a course and was in good, consistent form, this could be a good indicator of future performance.
You can also use tools like Golf Predictor to compare the form of up to ten golfers at a time, including season average position, course form, tournament form, and similar events. This can help you identify golfers who play better at certain times of the year or on certain types of courses.
Another factor to consider is the "Form Differential", which is the difference between a golfer's long-term performance and recent performance. This can help identify golfers who have underperformed recently but may have the potential for improvement.
When analysing form, it's also important to consider the context of the results. For example, a player might have had a great finish at a tournament, but what was their form like leading up to that event? Were they consistently playing well, or were there other factors at play?
Additionally, when considering current form, it's worth looking at a range of data points, such as ball striking, greens in regulation, short game, putting, and course statistics. This can help you make more informed decisions about a golfer's potential performance in an upcoming tournament.
By thoroughly analysing golfer form and considering a range of factors, you can make more strategic decisions when selecting your DFS golf lineup and increase your chances of winning.
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Study strokes gained data
Strokes gained data is an important tool to help you win at DFS golf. This data allows you to look at the performance of individual golfers on any course they've played on the PGA Tour in the past five years.
Strokes gained data is calculated using shot-level data. It measures the number of strokes gained or lost relative to the average golfer. Positive strokes gained values indicate performance better than the average golfer, while negative values indicate performance worse than the average golfer.
There are several categories of strokes gained data:
- Tee-to-Green: The sum of strokes gained off-the-tee, approach, and around the green.
- Off-the-Tee (OTT): The number of strokes gained or lost on tee shots.
- Approach (APP): The number of strokes gained or lost on approach shots.
- Around the Green (ARG): The number of strokes gained or lost on shots around the green, excluding putts.
- Putting (PUTT): The number of strokes gained or lost on putts.
When studying strokes gained data, it's important to consider the course history and course fit. Certain courses may favour certain types of golfers, and a golfer's performance on a particular course in the past can give you an indication of their confidence and potential to perform well there again.
Additionally, you can use strokes gained data to identify golfers who consistently gain strokes in specific categories. For example, a golfer who consistently gains strokes putting may be a valuable addition to your DFS team, especially on a course with challenging greens.
By analysing strokes gained data, you can make more informed decisions when building your DFS golf lineup and increase your chances of success.
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Frequently asked questions
Here are some key strategies to win at DFS golf:
- Focus on course history and course fit. Certain courses favour certain types of golfers, and some golfers simply perform better at certain courses.
- Understand the difference between Cash and GPP plays. In Cash games, you want to play the best golfers who have a shot at making the cut. In GPP, it's all about ownership—if a golfer has a good chance of winning but is less owned than other players, play him.
- Look at strokes gained data for each golfer on a particular course to determine if they will play well there.
- Consider the weather forecast and course setup, which can impact golfers' performances.
When building your DFS golf lineup, it is generally better to have a solid all-around team instead of only focusing on star players. Consider golfers' potential to make the cut rather than just their potential to win the tournament. Also, pay attention to DFS salaries and pricing, which correlate with the betting market. Don't forget to check reputable sites for PGA experts' picks and analysis.
If you're just starting out in DFS golf, begin by understanding the different types of contests, roster construction, and how to get the best value for your money. Search for single-entry and 3-max contests with lower entry fees and fewer opponents to tighten the gap between you and more experienced players. Familiarise yourself with course history, scoring difficulty, grass types, recent player form, and other factors that can impact tournament outcomes.
Some trusted sources for DFS golf information include Fantasy National Golf Club, which provides PGA Tour stats, course history, and form, and RotoGrinders, which features DFS expert Derek Farnsworth. You can also follow team rise or fall, which offers a study hub with valuable information. Additionally, check out content creators and data sources like datagolf, which provides analytics for the PGA Tour.
