Jackson Reid
The 2023 U.S. Open promises to be a thrilling tournament, with a stacked field of top golfers vying for the coveted title. While favorites like Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy are expected to contend, several dark horses could upset the odds and make a run for the championship. Players like Viktor Hovland, with his precision iron play, or Cameron Young, fresh off a strong showing at the PGA Championship, possess the talent and form to challenge the established stars. Additionally, veterans like Justin Rose, seeking a second major win, or young guns like Tom Kim, brimming with potential, could capitalize on the demanding course conditions and emerge as surprise contenders. With the U.S. Open known for its unpredictable nature, this year’s edition is ripe for an underdog story.
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What You'll Learn
- Rising Stars: Young talents like Tom Kim and Sahith Theegala could challenge established favorites
- Veteran Contenders: Experienced players like Jordan Spieth or Justin Rose may find their form
- Course Specialists: Players excelling on tough layouts, such as Collin Morikawa, could surprise
- Underrated Players: Keep an eye on lesser-known golfers like Keegan Bradley or Russell Henley
- Weather Impact: Unpredictable conditions might favor long hitters like Cameron Champ or Bryson DeChambeau
Rising Stars: Young talents like Tom Kim and Sahith Theegala could challenge established favorites
The US Open is a stage where legends are made, but it’s also a proving ground for rising stars. Among the young talents poised to challenge established favorites, Tom Kim and Sahith Theegala stand out as prime examples of the new wave of golfers ready to make their mark. Both players have demonstrated exceptional skill, mental toughness, and a fearless approach to competition, qualities that could lead to a breakthrough at this year’s tournament.
Consider Tom Kim, the 21-year-old phenom from South Korea. With two PGA Tour wins already under his belt, Kim has shown an uncanny ability to perform under pressure. His victory at the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open and the 2023 Wyndham Championship highlighted his clutch putting and aggressive playstyle. Kim’s average driving distance of 300 yards and his greens-in-regulation percentage of 68% place him among the tour’s elite ball-strikers. For bettors or fans looking to back an underdog, Kim’s odds (typically around 30-1) offer significant value given his recent form and adaptability to challenging course conditions.
Sahith Theegala, 25, is another young talent with the tools to upset the favorites. Known for his precision iron play and creative shot-making, Theegala finished runner-up at the 2022 Travelers Championship and has consistently contended in major championships. His short game, particularly his scrambling ability (ranked 12th on tour), makes him a threat on any course. Theegala’s approach is methodical yet daring—he’s not afraid to take risks when necessary, a trait that could pay dividends on a demanding US Open layout. For those tracking stats, his proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards (ranked 15th) is a key indicator of his potential to dominate on tight fairways and tricky greens.
What sets Kim and Theegala apart from other young players is their mental resilience. Both have experience in high-pressure situations, whether it’s Kim’s Presidents Cup debut or Theegala’s near-misses in PGA Tour events. This mental fortitude is critical at the US Open, where patience and composure often separate contenders from pretenders. Coaches and analysts note that their ability to stay focused on each shot, rather than the outcome, is a hallmark of their maturity beyond their years.
To maximize their chances, both players should focus on course management. The US Open is notorious for its penal rough and lightning-fast greens, so strategic tee shots and disciplined approach play will be essential. For fans and bettors, keep an eye on their performance in the first two rounds—if either player can stay within striking distance of the lead, their confidence and skill set could carry them into contention on the weekend. Rising stars like Kim and Theegala aren’t just here to compete; they’re here to rewrite the narrative of who can win a major.
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Veteran Contenders: Experienced players like Jordan Spieth or Justin Rose may find their form
The US Open is a tournament that demands precision, patience, and a deep understanding of the game—qualities often found in seasoned veterans. Players like Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose, though not always at the forefront of recent leaderboards, possess a wealth of experience that could tip the scales in their favor. Spieth, a three-time major winner, has a proven ability to navigate the mental and technical challenges of major championships. Rose, a former US Open champion, brings a refined game and a history of success on demanding courses. Both players have recently shown glimpses of their former brilliance, hinting that a return to form could be imminent.
Consider Spieth’s performance at the 2023 Masters, where he finished in the top 5, or Rose’s consistent top-20 finishes in recent months. These results aren’t accidental—they’re the product of years of honing their craft and an innate ability to adapt to the pressures of major tournaments. For bettors or fans looking to identify an upset contender, these veterans offer a compelling case. Their odds may not reflect their true potential, making them value picks in a field dominated by younger stars.
However, betting on a veteran resurgence isn’t without risk. Both Spieth and Rose have experienced slumps in recent years, raising questions about consistency. Spieth’s putting, once his strength, has been erratic, while Rose has struggled with injuries. To maximize their chances, look for signs of improvement in specific areas: Spieth’s putting stats and Rose’s driving accuracy are key indicators. If either player shows sustained progress in these departments leading up to the tournament, their odds of contending increase significantly.
Practical tip: Track their performances in the weeks preceding the US Open. Focus on their final-round scores, as veterans often excel under pressure. Additionally, consider the course setup—Spieth and Rose thrive on courses that reward strategic play over sheer power. If the US Open venue favors precision and experience, their chances of an upset rise dramatically.
In conclusion, while younger players may dominate headlines, veterans like Spieth and Rose remain dark horses with the potential to surprise. Their experience, combined with recent flashes of form, makes them worthy of attention. By analyzing specific performance metrics and course suitability, you can make an informed decision about their upset potential. In a tournament as unpredictable as the US Open, overlooking these seasoned contenders could be a costly mistake.
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Course Specialists: Players excelling on tough layouts, such as Collin Morikawa, could surprise
The U.S. Open is notorious for its punishing course setups, where thick rough, lightning-fast greens, and strategic hazards separate the field. While major champions often rise to the top, players who excel on demanding layouts can emerge as dark horses. Collin Morikawa, a two-time major winner, exemplifies this category. His precision iron play and exceptional course management make him a threat on any course, but particularly on the kind of brutal tracks the USGA favors. Morikawa’s victory at the 2020 PGA Championship on a challenging Harding Park course underscores his ability to thrive under pressure and navigate tough conditions.
Identifying course specialists requires looking beyond recent form to a player’s history on similarly difficult layouts. For instance, players who perform well at events like the Open Championship or the Players Championship often possess the skills needed to conquer a U.S. Open course. Take a closer look at their stats: driving accuracy, greens in regulation, and scrambling ability are critical metrics. A player who ranks highly in these areas, even if they haven’t won recently, could be poised for a breakout performance.
One practical tip for spotting these specialists is to study their performance on courses with penalizing rough and undulating greens. For example, if a player consistently contends at venues like Torrey Pines or Winged Foot, they’re likely comfortable with the mental and physical demands of a U.S. Open. Additionally, consider their ability to adapt to changing conditions, such as shifting winds or firming greens, which can dramatically alter the course’s playability.
While favorites like Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy dominate headlines, course specialists like Morikawa or even lesser-known players like Keith Mitchell or Tom Kim could surprise. Mitchell’s ball-striking prowess and Kim’s fearless approach make them intriguing candidates. The key is not to underestimate players who have proven they can handle adversity and think their way around a course. In a tournament where par is a good score, these specialists often outlast their flashier counterparts.
Ultimately, the U.S. Open rewards patience, precision, and resilience—qualities that course specialists embody. By focusing on players who excel in these areas, rather than solely on recent wins or world rankings, you can identify potential upsets before they happen. Keep an eye on the Morikawas of the world, but also scan the leaderboard for those who quietly climb it with steady, mistake-free golf. They might just be the ones lifting the trophy on Sunday.
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Underrated Players: Keep an eye on lesser-known golfers like Keegan Bradley or Russell Henley
While major championships often spotlight the game's biggest names, the US Open's grueling test of skill and mental fortitude creates opportunities for lesser-known players to emerge. Keegan Bradley, a former major winner whose recent resurgence has flown under the radar, exemplifies this potential. His revamped swing and renewed confidence, evidenced by a T4 finish at the 2023 PGA Championship, suggest he possesses the ball-striking prowess and experience to contend on a demanding US Open layout.
Russell Henley, another player deserving of attention, boasts a statistical profile that belies his relative anonymity. Ranked within the top 20 on tour in strokes gained: approach, Henley consistently delivers pinpoint iron play, a critical asset on tight US Open fairways and treacherous greens. His ability to scramble effectively, ranking 18th in strokes gained: around the green, further enhances his chances of navigating the tournament's inevitable challenges.
Unlike the bomb-and-gauge style favored by some, Henley's strategic, precision-based game aligns perfectly with the US Open's premium on accuracy and course management.
History provides ample precedent for unexpected US Open champions. Recent years have seen victories by Gary Woodland (2019) and Bryson DeChambeau (2020), neither of whom were considered pre-tournament favorites. This trend underscores the tournament's unique ability to elevate players who excel under pressure and adapt to its unforgiving conditions. Bradley and Henley, both seasoned professionals with proven ability to perform on big stages, fit this mold perfectly.
Their current form, combined with the US Open's penchant for surprising outcomes, makes them compelling dark horse contenders worthy of close observation.
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Weather Impact: Unpredictable conditions might favor long hitters like Cameron Champ or Bryson DeChambeau
Unpredictable weather at the U.S. Open can turn the tournament into a survival test, where brute strength off the tee becomes a game-changer. When winds howl and rain soaks the course, precision fades in importance, and power takes center stage. Long hitters like Cameron Champ and Bryson DeChambeau thrive in these conditions, as their ability to overpower the course minimizes the impact of erratic bounces or tricky lies. For instance, DeChambeau’s 2020 U.S. Open victory at Winged Foot showcased how his length allowed him to avoid deep rough and reach greens in fewer strokes, even as others struggled.
Consider the mechanics: a 30 mph wind can reduce a 300-yard drive to 260 yards, but for players averaging 320+ yards off the tee, the loss is less devastating. Champ, with an average drive of 321 yards, and DeChambeau, who routinely exceeds 330 yards, maintain a significant advantage in chaotic weather. Their ability to carry the ball farther reduces the need for risky layups or delicate approach shots, which become exponentially harder in wet or windy conditions. This isn’t just theory—data from past U.S. Opens shows that players in the top 10 for driving distance often outperform their rankings when weather disrupts play.
However, raw power alone isn’t enough. Long hitters must pair their strength with strategic decision-making. For example, knowing when to rein in the driver to avoid hazards or opting for a controlled iron off the tee on tight holes can prevent costly mistakes. DeChambeau’s success lies in his calculated aggression, using his length to attack when safe and laying back when necessary. Champ, meanwhile, has shown a growing ability to balance power with precision, a critical skill in unpredictable weather.
Practical tip for fans and bettors: Monitor the forecast closely. If storms or high winds are predicted, shift your focus to players like Champ and DeChambeau, whose physical advantages align with the demands of a weather-beaten course. Their ability to dominate off the tee can create a buffer against the chaos, turning a potential upset into a calculated outcome. In the U.S. Open’s notoriously tough conditions, power isn’t just an asset—it’s a lifeline.
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Frequently asked questions
Some dark horse candidates include Tom Kim, who has shown impressive form recently, and Cameron Young, who has multiple top-10 finishes in majors. Additionally, veterans like Adam Scott or Jason Day could find their form and make a surprising run.
Yes, the US Open has a history of surprising winners, such as Michael Campbell in 2005 and Webb Simpson in 2012. With the right combination of skill, course management, and luck, a lesser-known player like Davis Riley or Taylor Montgomery could emerge victorious.
Past champions like Justin Rose (2013 winner) or Gary Woodland (2019 winner) might be overlooked due to recent form, but they have the experience and game to contend on a tough US Open setup. Their familiarity with the pressure and demands of the tournament could make them dangerous contenders.
